Mhedzisiro yeongororo iyi inoratidza kuti kuvimba nekuvandudzwa kwesimba resimba rakasanganiswa neCCUS neNETs chete hazvigone kuve nzira inodhura yekudzika dzikamo yezvikamu zveHTA zveChina, kunyanya maindasitiri anorema.Kunyanya, kushandiswa kwakapararira kweiyo hydrogen yakachena muzvikamu zveHTA kunogona kubatsira China kuwana mutengo wekusarerekera kabhoni zvinobudirira zvichienzaniswa nemamiriro ezvinhu pasina kugadzirwa kwehydrogen yakachena uye kushandisa.Mhedzisiro yacho inopa nhungamiro yakasimba yeChina yeHTA decarbonization nzira uye chirevo chakakosha kune dzimwe nyika dzakatarisana nematambudziko akafanana.
Decarbonizing HTA maindasitiri zvikamu neakachena hydrogen
Isu tinoita yakasanganiswa yakachipa-inodhura optimization yenzira dzekuderedza kusarerekera kabhoni kuChina muna 2060. Mamiriro mana ekuenzanisira anotsanangurwa muTafura 1: bhizinesi semazuva ese (BAU), China's Nationally Determined Contributions pasi peParis Agreement (NDC), net- zero emissions ine no-hydrogen application (ZERO-NH) uye net-zero emissions ine yakachena hydrogen (ZERO-H).Mapazi eHTA muchidzidzo ichi anosanganisira kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri esimende, simbi nesimbi uye makemikoro akakosha (kusanganisira ammonia, soda uye caustic soda) uye zvekutakura zvinorema, kusanganisira marori nekutakura ngarava.Ruzivo ruzere rwunopihwa muchikamu cheNzira uye Manotsi ekuwedzera 1–5.Nezve chikamu chesimbi nesimbi, chikamu chikuru chekugadzirwa kuripo muChina (89.6%) ndeyeiyo yekutanga oxygen-blast furnace process, dambudziko rakakosha pakudzika decarbonization yeiyi.
industry.Iyo yemagetsi arc choto process inongosanganisira 10.4% yezvese kugadzirwa muChina muna 2019, iri 17.5% yakaderera pane avhareji yepasirese share uye 59.3% yakaderera pane iyo yeUnited States18.Takaongorora 60 yakakosha steelmaking emissions kuderedza tekinoroji mumuenzaniso uye tikaaisa muzvikamu zvitanhatu (Fig. 2a): kuvandudzwa kwehunyanzvi hwezvinhu, hunyanzvi hwekuita tekinoroji, electrification, CCUS, green hydrogen uye blue hydrogen (Supplementary Table 1).Kuenzanisa iyo sisitimu inodhura optimizations yeZERO-H neNDC uye ZERO-NH scenarios inoratidza kuti kuiswa kweakachena hydrogen sarudzo kwaizopa kucherechedzwa kuderedzwa kwekabhoni nekuda kwekuunza hydrogen-yakananga kudzikisa iron (hydrogen-DRI) maitiro.Ziva kuti haidhirojeni haigone kushanda kwete sesosi yesimba mukugadzira simbi asiwo se carbon-abating inoderedza agent pane imwe yekuwedzera muBlast Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) process uye 100% munzira yehydrogen-DRI.Pasi peZERO-H, chikamu cheBF-BOF chaizodzikiswa kusvika pa34% muna 2060, paine 45% yemagetsi arc furnace uye 21% hydrogen-DRI, uye yakachena haidrojeni yaizopa 29% yehuwandu hwekupedzisira kudiwa kwesimba muchikamu.Nemutengo wegridi wesimba rezuva nemhepo rinotarisirwakuderera kusvika kuUS$38–40MWh−1 muna 205019, mutengo wegreen hydrogen.
ichadererawo, uye nzira ye100% yehydrogen-DRI inogona kuita basa rakakosha kupfuura raimbozivikanwa.Nezve kugadzirwa kwesimende, modhi iyi inosanganisira makumi mana nemanomwe tekinoroji tekinoroji mukati memaitiro ekugadzira akaiswa muzvikamu zvitanhatu (Supplementary Tables 2 ne3): kushanda nesimba, mamwe mafuta, kuderedza clinker-ku-simende reshiyo, CCUS, green hydrogen uye blue hydrogen. Mufananidzo 2b).Mhedzisiro inoratidza kuti kuvandudzwa kwesimba rekushandisa tekinoroji kunogona kuderedza chete 8-10% yehuwandu hweCO2 kuburitswa muchikamu chesimende, uye tsvina-yekupisa kusanganiswa uye oxy-fuel tekinoroji ichave neinoderedza kuderedza maitiro (4-8%).Tekinoroji dzekudzikisa muyero we clinker-ku-simende unogona kuburitsa yakakwira kabhoni kudzikisira (50-70%), kunyanya kusanganisira decarbonized mbishi kugadzirwa kweclinker uchishandisa granulated blast furnace slag, kunyangwe vatsoropodzi vachibvunza kana simende inozobuda ichichengeta hunhu hwayo hwakakosha.Asi zvazvino zvabuda zvinoratidza kuti kushandiswa kwehydrogen pamwe neCCUS kunogona kubatsira chikamu chesimende kuwana pedyo-zero CO2 emissions muna 2060.
Muchiitiko cheZERO-H, makumi maviri ehydrogen-based tekinoroji (kunze kwemakumi mana nemanomwe tekinoroji) anopinda mukugadzira simende.Isu tinoona kuti avhareji kabhoni aitement mutengo wehydrogen tekinoroji yakaderera pane yakajairika CCUS uye mafuta ekuchinja nzira (Fig. 2b).Uyezve, green hydrogen inotarisirwa kunge yakachipa kupfuura blue hydrogen mushure megore ra2030 sezvakakurukurwa zvakadzama pazasi, inosvika US$0.7–US$1.6 kg−1 H2 (ref. 20), zvichiunza kudzikiswa kwakakosha kweCO2 mukupihwa kupisa kweindasitiri mukugadzira simende. .mhedzisiro yazvino inoratidza kuti inogona kuderedza 89-95% yeCO2 kubva mukupisa muindasitiri yeChina (Fig. 2b, matekinoroji.
28–47), izvo zvinofambirana nefungidziro yeHydrogen Council ye84–92% (ref. 21).Clinker process emissions yeCO2 inofanira kudzikiswa neCCUS mune zvese ZERO-H neZERO-NH.Isu tinotevedzerawo kushandiswa kwehydrogen sechikafu mukugadzira ammonia, methane, methanol uye mamwe makemikari akanyorwa murondedzero yemuenzaniso.Muchiitiko cheZERO-H, gas-based ammonia yakagadzirwa nehydrogen heat ichawana 20% yehuwandu hwekugadzirwa mu2060 (Fig. 3 uye Supplementary Table 4).Iyo modhi inosanganisira mana emhando dzekugadzira methanol tekinoroji: marasha kune methanol (CTM), coke gasi kune methanol (CGTM), gasi rechisikigo kune methanol (NTM) uye CGTM/NTM ine hydrogen kupisa.Muchiitiko cheZERO-H, CGTM / NTM ine hydrogen inopisa inogona kuwana 21% yekugadzira chikamu mu2060 (Fig. 3).Makemikari anogonawo kutakura simba rehydrogen.Pahwaro hwekuongorora kwedu kwakabatanidzwa, hydrogen inogona kuumba 17% yekupedzisira kushandiswa kwesimba rekupa kupisa muindasitiri yemakemikari ne2060. Pamwe chete nebioenergy (18%) uye magetsi (32%), hydrogen ine basa guru 
decarbonization yeChina yeHTA makemikari indasitiri (Fig. 4a).
Fig. 2 |Carbon kudzikiswa kugona uye kudzikisa mitengo yeakakosha ekuderedza matekinoroji.a, Zvikamu zvitanhatu zve60 kiyi yekugadzira simbi yekuburitsa tekinoroji tekinoroji.b, Zvikamu zvitanhatu zvemakumi mana nemanomwe akakosha simende ekuderedza tekinoroji.Iwo matekinoroji akanyorwa nenhamba, ine tsananguro dzinoenderana dzinosanganisirwa muSupplementary Table 1 ye a uye Supplementary Table 2 ye b.Iyo tekinoroji yekugadzirira mazinga (TRLs) ega ega tekinoroji akanyorwa: TRL3, pfungwa;TRL4, diki prototype;TRL5, prototype hombe;TRL6, yakazara prototype pachiyero;TRL7, pre-commercial kuratidzira;TRL8, kuratidzira;TRL10, kutorwa kwekutanga;TRL11, yakakura.
Decarbonizing HTA yekufambisa modhi ine yakachena haidrojeni Pamusoro pemhedzisiro yekuenzanisira, hydrogen inewo mukana wakakura wekubvisa dhizaini chikamu chekutakura cheChina, kunyangwe zvichizotora nguva.Mukuwedzera kune LDVs, mamwe maitiro ekufambisa akaongororwa mumuenzaniso anosanganisira mabhazi ezvikepe, marori (akareruka / maduku / epakati / anorema), kutakura mudzimba uye njanji, inovhara zvakawanda zvekufambisa muChina.Kune maLDV, mota dzemagetsi dzinotarisa kuramba dzichidhura mune ramangwana.MuZERO-H, hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) kupinda mumusika weLDV kuchasvika chete 5% muna 2060 (Fig. 3).Kune mabhazi ezvikepe, zvisinei, mabhazi eHFC achave anonyanya kukwikwidzana kupfuura mamwe magetsi emagetsi mu2045 uye anosanganisira 61% yezvikepe zvose mu2060 muZERO-H scenario, pamwe chete nemagetsi akasara (Fig. 3).Kana ari marori, mibairo yacho inosiyana nechiyero chekutakura.Kufambiswa kwemagetsi kuchatyaira inopfuura hafu yeazere mwenje-basa rori zvikepe panosvika 2035 muZERO-NH.Asi muZERO-H, HFC light-duty marori achange achikwikwidza kudarika marori emagetsi emagetsi panosvika 2035 uye anosanganisira 53% yemusika panosvika 2060. Nezvemarori anorema, HFC heavy-duty marori aizosvika 66% ye musika muna 2060 mune ZERO-H mamiriro.Diesel / bio-diesel / CNG (compressed natural gas) HDVs (motokari dzinorema) dzichasiya pamusika mushure me2050 mune zvose ZERO-NH uye ZERO-H scenarios (Fig. 3).Mota dzeHFC dzine imwe mukana pamusoro pemotokari dzemagetsi mukuita kwadzo kuri nani mumamiriro ekutonhora, kwakakosha kuchamhembe nekumadokero kweChina.Pamusoro pekutakura kwemumugwagwa, modhi inoratidza kutorwa kwakapararira kwehydrogen tekinoroji mukutakura muZERO-H scenario.Kutakura kwemukati kweChina kune simba rakawanda uye dambudziko rakanyanya kuoma decarbonization.Chenesa hydrogen, kunyanya sea
feedstock yeammonia, inopa sarudzo yekutumira decarbonization.Mhinduro shoma-inodhura muZERO-H scenario inokonzera 65% kupinda kweammonia-fuelled uye 12% yezvikepe zvehydrogen-fuelled mu2060 (Fig. 3).Muchiitiko ichi, hydrogen ichaita avhareji ye56% yekupedzisira kwesimba rekushandisa kwese indasitiri yekufambisa muna 2060. Isu takatevedzerawo kushandiswa kwehydrogen mukupisa kwekugara (Supplementary Note 6), asi kutorwa kwayo hakuna basa uye pepa iri rinotarisa. kushandiswa kwehydrogen mumaindasitiri eHTA uye inorema-basa rekutakura.Mari inochengetedzwa yekusarerekera kwekabhoni uchishandisa yakachena hydrogen remangwana reChina kabhoni-risina kwayakarerekera richave rinoratidzwa nekuvandudzwa kwesimba rekutonga, nekupera kwemarasha mukushandiswa kwayo kwesimba kwekutanga (Fig. 4).Mafuta asina fossil anosanganisira 88% yemagetsi ekutanga emusanganiswa muna 2050 uye 93% muna 2060 pasi peZERO-H.Wind uye solar ichapa hafu yekushandisa kwekutanga kwesimba muna 2060. kushandiswa (TFEC) kunogona kusvika 13% muna 2060. Tichifunga nezvematunhu heterogeneity yekugadzirwa kwemasimba mumakambani makuru nenharaunda (Supplementary Table 7), kune mapurovhinzi gumi ane hydrogen migove yeTFEC yakakwirira kupfuura yevhareji yenyika, kusanganisira Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Shandong. uye Guangdong, inofambiswa nehupfumi hwezuva uye kumahombekombe uye kumahombekombe emhepo zviwanikwa uye/kana akawanda maindasitiri anodikanwa ehydrogen.Mune iyo ZERO-NH mamiriro, iyo yakawedzera mari yekudyara kuti uwane kusarerekera kabhoni kusvika 2060 ingave $20.63 tiririyoni, kana 1.58% yeaggregate gross domestic product (GDP) ye2020-2060.Avhareji yekuwedzera mari pagore inosvika US$516 bhiriyoni pagore.Mhedzisiro iyi inoenderana neChina yeUS$15 tiririyoni yekuderedza hurongwa kusvika 2050, avhareji yegore negore mari itsva yeUS$500 bhiriyoni (ref. 22).Nekudaro, kuunza yakachena hydrogen sarudzo muChina simba system uye maindasitiri feedstocks mune ZERO-H mamiriro anokonzeresa kuderera kwekudyara kweUS $ 18.91 trillion panosvika 2060 uye pagore.mari yaizodzikiswa kusvika pasi pe1% yeGDP muna 2060 (Fig.4).Nezve zvikamu zveHTA, mutengo wepagore wekudyara mune iwozvikamu zvingave zvakatenderedza US $ 392 bhiriyoni pagore muZERO-NHscenario, inoenderana nekufungidzira kweiyo EnergyTransition Commission (US$400 bhiriyoni) (ref. 23).Zvisinei, kana yakachena
hydrogen inosanganisirwa musimba sisitimu uye makemikari feedstocks, iyo ZERO-H mamiriro anoratidza mutengo wepagore wekudyara muzvikamu zveHTA unogona kudzikiswa kusvika kuUS $ 359 bhiriyoni, kunyanya nekudzikisa kuvimba neCCUS inodhura kana maNET.Mhedzisiro yedu inoratidza kuti kushandiswa kwehydrogen yakachena kunogona kuchengetedza US $ 1.72 trillion mumutengo wekudyara uye kudzivirira kurasikirwa ne0.13% muGDP yakaunganidzwa (2020-2060) zvichienzaniswa nenzira isina hydrogen kusvika 2060.
Fig. 3 |Tekinoroji yekupinda mune yakajairika HTA zvikamu.Mhinduro dziri pasi peBAU, NDC, ZERO-NH neZERO-H scenarios (2020–2060).Mugore rega rega rinokosha, iyo chaiyo tekinoroji yekupinda muzvikamu zvakasiyana inoratidzwa nemabhawa ane mavara, apo bhari yega yega iri muzana yekupinda kusvika ku100% (yereti ine shaded yakazara).Iyo tekinoroji inoverengerwa zvakare nemhando dzakasiyana (inoratidzwa mungano).CNG, gasi rechisikigo rakamanikidzwa;LPG, liquid petroleum gasi;LNG, gasi remvura;w/wo, ine kana isina;EAF, electric arc furnace;NSP, nyowani yekumisa preheater yakaoma maitiro;WHR, kutambisa kupisa kupora.
Nguva yekutumira: Mar-13-2023
