Breaking the hard-to-abate bottleneck in China‘s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen（1）

Kupwanya bhodhoro rakaoma-ku-abate munzira yeChina yekusarerekera kabhoni nehydrogen yakachena

Nyika dzakaita seChina dziri kutarisana nebhodhoro munzira dzadzo dzekusarerekera kabhoni: kuderedza kuburitswa mumaindasitiri anorema uye kutakura zvinorema.Pane zvishoma zvidzidzo zvakadzama zvebasa rinotarisirwa rehydrogen yakachena muzvikamu izvi 'zvakaoma-ku-abate' (HTA).Pano isu tinoita yakasanganiswa ine simba shoma-inodhura modhi yekuongorora.Mhedzisiro inoratidza kuti, kutanga, yakachena haidrojeni inogona kuve ese inotakura simba guru uye feedstock inogona kuderedza zvakanyanya kuburitsa kabhoni yeindasitiri inorema.Inogona zvakare kuita mafuta anosvika makumi mashanu muzana eChina anorema-basa rori uye mabhazi zvikepe panosvika 2060 uye migove yakakosha yekutakura.Chechipiri, chaiyo yakachena hydrogen mamiriro anosvika 65.7 Mt yekugadzirwa muna 2060 inogona kudzivirira US $ 1.72 trillion yekudyara kutsva kana ichienzaniswa neasina-hydrogen mamiriro.Chidzidzo ichi chinopa humbowo hwekukosha kwehydrogen yakachena muzvikamu zveHTA kuChina nenyika dziri kusangana nematambudziko akafanana mukuderedza kuburitswa kwehutsi kuti dziwane zvinangwa zvet-zero.

Kugadzirisa kusarerekera kabhoni ibasa rekukurumidzira repasi rose, asi hapana nzira 'yekukura-imwe-inokwana-yose' nzira yekuti nyika huru dziri kubuda dzizadzise chinangwa ichi1,2 .Nyika zhinji dzakasimukira, dzakaita seUnited States nedziya dziri muEurope, dziri kutevera nzira dzedecar bonisation dzakatariswa kunyanya pazvikepe zvihombe zvemagetsi (LDV), kugadzirwa kwemagetsi, kugadzira uye zvivakwa zvekutengesa uye zvekugara, zvikamu zvina izvo pamwe chete zvinomiririra. huwandu hwakawanda hwekabhoni yavo3,4.Maemitter makuru emunyika ari kusimukira, akadai seChina, nemusiyano, ane hupfumi hwakasiyana uye zvimiro zvesimba, zvinoda zvakasiyana-siyana decarbonization zvekutanga kwete muzvikamu chete asiwo mukufambiswa kwehungwaru hweazvino zero-carbon tekinoroji.

Misiyano yakakosha yeprofile yekuChina yekuburitsa kabhoni kana ichienzaniswa neiyo yehupfumi hwekumavirira migove mikuru yekuburitsa maindasitiri anorema uye zvikamu zvidiki zvikuru zveLDVs uye kushandiswa kwesimba muzvivakwa (Fig. 1).China inotungamira pasirese, kusvika kure, maererano nekugadzirwa kwesimende, simbi nesimbi, makemikari uye zvinhu zvekuvakisa, zvichishandisa marasha akawanda ekupisa kwemaindasitiri uye kugadzira coke.Indasitiri inorema inopa 31% yezvinoburitswa neChina zvazvino, mugove uri 8% wakakwira kupfuura avhareji yepasi rose (23%), 17% yakakura kupfuura yeUnited States (14%) uye 13% yakakwirira kupfuura iyo yeEuropean Union. (18%) (ref.5).

China yakavimbisa kuwedzera kuburitsa kabhoni gore ra2030 risati rasvika uye kuwana kusarerekera kwekabhoni pamberi pa2060. Zvitsidzo zvemamiriro ekunze izvi zvakawana rumbidzo yakapararira asi zvakamutsawo mibvunzo nezve fea sibility6 , muchidimbu nekuda kwebasa guru re'kuoma-kubvisa' (HTA) maitiro muhupfumi hweChina.Aya maitiro anosanganisira kushandiswa kwesimba muindasitiri inorema uye inorema-basa rekutakura izvo zvichange zvakaoma kuisa magetsi (uye nekudaro kushandura zvakananga kune simba rinodzokororwa) uye maindasitiri maitiro zvino zvinoenderana nemafuta emafuta emakemikari feedstocks.Pave paine mashoma achangopfuura zvidzidzo1– 3 inoongorora decar bonization nzira yakanangana nekabhoni kusarerekera kune yeChina yakazara simba system kuronga asi ine mashoma ongororo yezvikamu zveHTA.Pasi rose, zvingango gadzirisa zvigadziriso zvezvikamu zveHTA zvatanga kukwevera pfungwa mumakore achangopfuura7-14.Iyo decarbonization yezvikamu zveHTA inonetsa nekuti inonetsa kuisa magetsi zvizere uye/kana kudhura zvinobudirira7,8.Åhman akasimbisa kuti kutsamira panzira ndiro dambudziko guru rezvikamu zveHTA uye kuti chiono uye kuronga kwenguva refu kwetekinoroji yepamberi zvinodikanwa 'kuvhura' zvikamu zveHTA, kunyanya maindasitiri anorema, kubva kufossil dependency9.Zvidzidzo zvakatsvaga zvishandiso zvitsva uye zvigadziriso zvekudzikisa zvine chekuita nekutorwa kwekabhoni, kushandisa uye/kana kuchengetedza (CCUS) uye negative emission technologies (NETs)10,11.yeinenge chidzidzo chimwe chete vanobvuma kuti dzinofanirawo kutariswa mukuronga kwenguva refu11.MuChitanhatu Chekuongorora Chirevo cheIntergovernmental Panel paKuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze, kushandiswa kwe "low-emission" yehydrogen yakaonekwa seimwe yemhinduro dzakakosha dzekudzikisa masector akawanda kusvika pakuwana hutsi hwemambure-zero remangwana12.

Mabhuku aripo pane yakachena hydrogen anotariswa zvakanyanya pakugadzira tekinoroji sarudzo nekuongorora kwekupa-parutivi mutengo15.('Clean' hydrogen mubepa rino inosanganisira zvose 'green' uye 'blue' hydrogen, iyo yekare inogadzirwa neelectrolysis yemvura ichishandisa simba rinogoneka, iyo yekupedzisira inotorwa kubva mumafuta emafuta asi yakasvibiswa neCCUS.) Hurukuro yekuda kwehydrogen inotariswa zvakanyanya pa chikamu chekufambisa munyika dzakabudirira-hydrogen mafuta cell mota kunyanya16,17.Dzvinyiriro dzekubvisa kaboni mumaindasitiri anorema dzaderera kana zvichienzaniswa nedzekufambiswa kwemigwagwa, zvichiratidza fungidziro dzakajairika dzekuti indasitiri inorema ichaita.
zvinoramba zvakanyanya kuoma kudzikira kusvikira hutsva hwetekinoroji hwabuda.Zvidzidzo zvehutsanana (kunyanya girinhi) hydrogen zvakaratidza kukura kwayo kwetekinoroji uye kuderera kwemitengo17, asi zvimwe zvidzidzo zvinodiwa zvinotarisa pakukura kwemisika inogona kuitika uye zvinodiwa zvetekinoroji zvemaindasitiri kushandisa zvinotarisirwa kukura kweiyo yakachena hydrogen supply16.Kunzwisisa kugona kwehydrogen yakachena kufambisira mberi kusarerekera kwekabhoni pasi rose kuchave kwakarerekera zvakanyanya kana ongororo dzakaganhurirwa zvakanyanya kumitengo yekugadzirwa kwayo, kudyiwa kwayo nezvikamu zvinofarirwa chete uye kushandiswa kwayo muhupfumi hwakasimukira.Mabhuku aripo ehydrogen yakachena anotariswa. zvakanyanya pane zvekugadzira tekinoroji sarudzo ine ongororo yekugovera-parutivi mutengo15.('Clean' hydrogen mubepa rino inosanganisira zvose 'green' uye 'blue' hydrogen, iyo yekare inogadzirwa neelectrolysis yemvura ichishandisa simba rinogoneka, iyo yekupedzisira inotorwa kubva mumafuta emafuta asi yakasvibiswa neCCUS.) Hurukuro yekuda kwehydrogen inotariswa zvakanyanya pa chikamu chekufambisa munyika dzakabudirira-hydrogen mafuta cell mota kunyanya16,17.Dzvinyiriro dzekubvisa kaboni mumaindasitiri anorema dzaderera kana zvichienzaniswa nedzekufambiswa kwemigwagwa, zvichiratidza fungidziro dzakajairwa kuti indasitiri inorema icharamba yakanyanya kuoma kudzikira kudzamara hunyanzvi hutsva hwetekinoroji hwabuda.Zvidzidzo zvehutsanana (kunyanya girinhi) hydrogen zvakaratidza kukura kwayo kwetekinoroji uye kuderera kwemitengo17, asi zvimwe zvidzidzo zvinodiwa zvinotarisa pakukura kwemisika inogona kuitika uye zvinodiwa zvetekinoroji zvemaindasitiri kushandisa zvinotarisirwa kukura kweiyo yakachena hydrogen supply16.Kunzwisisa kugona kwehydrogen yakachena kusimudzira kusarerekera kwekabhoni pasi rose kuchave kwakarerekera kana ongororo yakadzikira zvakanyanya kumitengo yekugadzirwa kwayo, kushandiswa kwayo nezvikamu zvinofarirwa chete uye kushandiswa kwayo muhupfumi hwakabudirira.

Kuongorora mikana yekuchenesa haidrojeni kunoenderana nekuongorora zvakare zvingangodiwa seimwe mafuta uye makemikari feedstock mukati meiyo yese simba system uye hupfumi, kusanganisira nekufunga nezve akasiyana mamiriro enyika.Iko hakuna kudzidza kwakadzama kwakadaro kusvika parizvino pane basa rekuchenesa hydrogen mune remangwana reChina net-zero.Kuzadza gaka iri rekutsvagisa kuchabatsira kudhirowa nzira yakajeka yekudzikisa kuburitswa kweCO2 yeChina, kubvumira kuongororwa kwezvipikirwa zvayo zve2030 uye 2060 decarbonization uye nekupa gwara kune mamwe hupfumi huri kusimukira hune zvikamu zvakakura zvemaindasitiri.

Fig. 1 |Carbon emissions yenyika dzakakosha uye nzira yekuongorora yehydrogen musimba resimba.a, kubuda kwekabhoni yeChina muna 2019 zvichienzaniswa neUnited States, Europe, Japan neIndia, nemafuta.Muna 2019, kupisa kwemarasha kwakatora chikamu chikuru chekubuda kwekabhoni muChina (79.62%) neIndia (70.52%), uye kupisa kwemafuta kwakakonzera zvakanyanya kuburitsa kabhoni muUnited States (41.98%) neEurope (41.27%).b, kubuda kwekabhoni yeChina muna 2019 zvichienzaniswa neUnited States, Europe, Japan neIndia, nechikamu.Emissions inoratidzwa kuruboshwe uye chikamu kurudyi mune a uye b.Huwandu hwekuburitswa kwekabhoni kubva kuindasitiri muChina (28.10%) neIndia (24.75%) hwakanga hwakanyanya kudarika hweUnited States (9.26%) neEurope (13.91%) muna 2019. c, Tekinoroji nzira ine hydrogen tekinoroji yakaiswa zvikamu zveHTA.SMR, steam methane kugadzirisa;PEM electrolysis, polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis;PEC maitiro, photoelectrochemical process.

Ichi chidzidzo chinoda kupindura mibvunzo mitatu yakakosha.Chekutanga, ndeapi matambudziko akakosha ekubvisa carbonization yezvikamu zveHTA munyika dzichiri kusimukira dzakaita seChina, seanosiyaniswa neaya enyika dzakabudirira?Matekinoroji ezvino ekudzikisa matekinoroji muzvikamu zveHTA (kunyanya indasitiri inorema) inoshanda zvakakwana kuti iwane kusarerekera kwekabhoni yeChina panosvika 2060?Chechipiri, ndeapi mabasa anotarisirwa ehydrogen yakachena semutakuri wesimba uye chikafu muzvikamu zveHTA, kunyanya muChina nedzimwe nyika dzichiri kusimukira idzo dzichangotanga kuwana kugadzirwa nekushandiswa kwayo?Chekupedzisira, zvichibva pakusimbaradza kwesimba rese reChina sys

tem, kushandiswa kwakapararira kwehydrogen yakachena muzvikamu zveHTA kungave kunodhura kana zvichienzaniswa nedzimwe sarudzo?

Pano tinovaka modhi yesimba rakasanganiswa resimba rinosanganisira zvese kugovera uye kudiwa kumatunhu ese kuti tiongorore zvinotarisirwa mutengo unobudirira uye mabasa eiyo hydrogen yakachena muhupfumi hweChina hwese, tichisimbisa pane zvisina kuongororwa HTA zvikamu (Fig. 1c).

Nguva yekutumira: Mar-03-2023